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Technical Analysis Explained, Fifth Edition: The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points
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About Technical Analysis Explained, Fifth Edition: The
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved. Technical Analysis ExplainedTHE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR'S GUIDE TO SPOTTING INVESTMENT TRENDS AND TURNING POINTSBy MARTIN J. PRINGMcGraw-Hill EducationCopyright © 2014 McGraw-Hill EducationAll rights reserved.ISBN: 978-0-07-182517-7ContentsPreface, Part I: Trend-Determining Techniques, 1. The Definition and Interaction of Trends, 2. Financial Markets and the Business Cycle, 3. Dow Theory, 4. Typical Parameters for Intermediate Trends, 5. How to Identify Support and Resistance Zones, 6. Trendlines, 7. Basic Characteristics of Volume, 8. Classic Price Patterns, 9. Smaller Price Patterns and Gaps, 10. One- and Two-Bar Price Patterns, 11. Moving Averages, 12. Envelopes and Bollinger Bands, 13. Momentum I: Basic Principles, 14. Momentum II: Individual Indicators, 15. Momentum III: Individual Indicators, 16. Candlestick Charting, 17. Point and Figure Charting, 18. Miscellaneous Techniques for Determining Trends, 19. The Concept of Relative Strength, 20. Putting the Indicators Together: The DJ Transports 1990–2001, Part II: Market Structure, 21. Price: The Major Averages, 22. Price: Sector Rotation, 23. Time: Analyzing Secular Trends for Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities, 24. Time: Cycles and Seasonal Patterns, 25. Practical Identification of Cycles, 26. Volume II: Volume Indicators, 27. Market Breadth, Part III: Other Aspects of Market Analysis, 28. Indicators and Relationships That Measure Confidence, 29. The Importance of Sentiment, 30. Integrating Contrary Opinion and Technical Analysis, 31. Why Interest Rates Affect the Stock Market, 32. Using Technical Analysis to Select Individual Stocks, 33. Technical Analysis of International Stock Markets, 34. Automated Trading Systems, 35. Checkpoints for Identifying Primary Stock Market Peaks and Troughs, Epilogue, Appendix: The Elliott Wave, Glossary, Bibliography, Index, CHAPTER 1THE DEFINITION AND INTERACTION OF TRENDSIn the introduction, technical analysis was defined as the art of identifying trend changes at an early stage and to maintain an investment or trading posture until the weight of the evidence indicates that the trend has reversed. In order to identify a trend reversal, we must first know what that trend is. This chapter explains and categorizes the principal trends, and concludes with a discussion of one of the basic building blocks of technical analysis: peak-and-trough progression. This technique is arguably the simplest of trend-determining techniques, but in my book, certainly one of the most effective.Time FramesWe have already established the link between psychology and prices. It is also a fact that human nature (psychology) is more or less constant. This means that the principles of technical analysis can be applied to any time frame, from one- minute bars to weekly and monthly charts. The interpretation is identical. The only difference is that the battle between buyers and sellers is much larger on the monthly charts than on the intraday ones. This means that such trend- reversal signals are far more significant. As we proceed, it will be evident that this book contains a huge variety of examples featuring many different time frames. For the purpose of interpretation, the time frame really doesn't matter; it's the character of the pattern that does. For example, if you are a long-term trader and see a particular example featured on a 10-minute bar chart, the principles of interpretation are the same when applied to a weekly chart. A long-term investor would never initiate an investment based on a 10-minute chart, but can and should take action when that same type of technical evidence appears on a weekly or monthly one, and vice versa.Three Important TrendsA trend is a period in which a price moves in an irregular but persistent direction. It may also be described as a time measurement of the direction in price levels covering different time spans. There are many different classifications of trends in techni
